Something unusual happened this month.
On August 1, Massachusetts default electricity rates reset higher: National Grid small commercial now pays 15.568¢/kWh, while Eversource East is at 16.761¢/kWh, both fixed through January.
The normal script says wholesale prices firm up right behind a reset like that.
Instead, the market broke the other way.
The gap: customer default rates moved higher while wholesale market inputs moved lower, creating one of the widest spreads of the year between what businesses are paying today and what replacement supply may cost.
Henry Hub gas futures settled at $2.60/MMBtu on August 5, down from $3.22 on July 1. New England spot gas, which usually carries a premium over the national benchmark, ended July at a $0.22 discount to Henry Hub.
Storage sits at 3,117 Bcf, nearly 7% above the five-year average, while NOAA's latest 8–14 day outlook leans near- to below-normal for the Northeast even as the South continues to see significant heat.
So the rate customers pay went up, and the cost of replacing it went down.
That spread is the widest we've seen all year.
Why It Won't Last
Three dates could close the window.
Late August
Freeport LNG's 2.4 Bcf/d export terminal is expected to return from maintenance. That demand returning is roughly half the reason natural gas is this inexpensive right now.
September 1
Rhode Island Energy's $230 million rate case takes effect if approved. These are distribution charges rather than supply costs, but they still land on the same customer bill.
October 1
Rhode Island's winter Last Resort Service resets. The filed commercial rate is 16.58¢/kWh for October through March, compared with roughly 10.5¢ today.
The PUC rules in late September. Every relief proposal currently on the table in Providence, including the $28 million RGGI credit petition filed August 6, applies to residential customers only.
Commercial accounts receive no comparable credit.
At the same time, winter natural gas forecasts remain well above today's market. Q1 2027 is projected at approximately $3.83/MMBtu compared with a $2.60 market today.
What We're Telling Brokers
Quote against the number the customer is already paying.
A Massachusetts small commercial account on default supply is paying approximately 15.6¢ to 16.8¢/kWh right now. A fixed quote priced off today's lower natural gas market can beat that benchmark on paper today without requiring the customer to make a directional market call.
The timing matters: the first bills reflecting Massachusetts' new default rates are arriving over the next two weeks. The broker who starts the conversation before the customer sees the bill is in a much stronger position.
In Rhode Island, benchmark every renewal against 16.58¢/kWh and close before October. A commercial customer who locks in August is effectively buying next January at this month's natural gas pricing.
One More Date for Boston Building Owners
BERDO emissions reporting is due Friday, August 15.
If a building has excess 2025 emissions, the available compliance alternatives include efficiency upgrades, renewable energy certificates, or an alternative compliance payment of $234 per metric ton.
Gridwealth's 100% MA Class I REC supply is BERDO-eligible and available now.
The Fine Print That Matters
There are also two gaps in the public record worth watching.
Eversource: its August 1 medium and large commercial quarter still has not been posted publicly. Ten days after the new period began, the company's business supply-rates page still ends July 31.
Unitil: its August small commercial rate also remains unpublished several weeks into the new pricing period.
If you're on either utility, you're effectively operating without a visible public benchmark for your own default supply cost.
We're happy to run the comparison for you.
See the Full New England Market Picture
Our New England Energy Market Brief tracks ISO-NE zone prices, natural gas fundamentals, utility default rates, filing activity, and the regulatory calendar across Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Request a Quote →