Something important is happening in the natural gas and power markets right now, and most commercial electricity buyers in New England are not paying attention to it.

Henry Hub natural gas — the national benchmark price — just fell to approximately $2.80/MMBtu, its lowest level since November 2024. At the same time, Algonquin Citygate, the price point that directly reflects New England gas supply conditions, dropped to $2.695/MMBtu for April bidweek — actually below Henry Hub. That is a basis inversion, and it is exceptionally rare.

The result: ISO-NE Hub Day-Ahead power prices have settled into the $60–65/MWh range, the cheapest sustained shoulder-season window in New England since 2022. If you have commercial customers approaching contract renewals, this is the window to act.

Why Gas Prices Are at a 17-Month Low

Three forces are converging to drive natural gas prices down to levels not seen since late 2024:

1. Mild winter trailing off early. The 2025–2026 winter was the coldest in 20 years, driving record DASI costs in New England. But it ended abruptly. April temperatures across the Northeast are running near or below normal, collapsing heating demand and leaving pipeline capacity underutilized.

2. Injection season started two weeks early. The EIA reported the first net injection of the 2026 storage season — +36 Bcf for the week ending March 27 — arriving approximately two weeks ahead of the 5-year average. Working gas in storage stands at 1,865 Bcf and is building. When storage fills faster than expected, prices fall.

3. U.S. production remains near record levels. Domestic production is steady near 109 Bcf/day with no disruptions. Even with strong LNG export demand from Europe, the domestic supply picture is ample for now.

The combination of these three forces has pushed Henry Hub below $3/MMBtu and sent Algonquin below Henry Hub — an anomaly that signals New England is long on gas supply for the spring.

The Algonquin Basis Inversion: What It Really Means

Algonquin Citygate is the hub where New England gas transmission capacity constraints show up in prices. In a typical winter, Algonquin trades at a substantial premium to Henry Hub — sometimes $5–20/MMBtu above national prices — because NE pipeline capacity is constrained and gas-fired generators compete aggressively for fuel during peak heating demand.

In January 2026, Algonquin averaged approximately $18/MMBtu above Henry Hub at peak. In April, it is $0.10 below Henry Hub.

That swing — from +$18 to -$0.10 — tells you exactly where we are in the seasonal cycle: at the absolute trough. And since gas-fired generation sets the marginal price in New England approximately 60% of the time, cheap gas equals cheap power. Hub DA prices in the low $60s/MWh reflect this directly.

The inversion is temporary. It ends when AC load builds. The same pipeline constraints that drove January's $18/MMBtu premium will return in winter 2027. Customers who lock fixed supply now are insulating themselves against that cycle returning.

Why RI Customers Have an Extra Reason to Act

Rhode Island commercial customers have a second urgency driver this month that has nothing to do with gas prices: RI Energy has filed a formal rate case with the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission (RIPUC) requesting approximately $230 million in additional annual revenue across its electric and gas service.

If approved, average residential electric bills would increase approximately 4.83%, and average gas bills would increase approximately 20.6%, effective September 1, 2026. RIPUC hearings are ongoing.

For commercial customers, this rate case is relevant in a specific way: it affects delivery and distribution charges, not supply. But the timing is important. RI commercial customers who lock fixed supply costs now — at April's multi-year lows — will at least control the supply side of their bill before September's delivery charge increase arrives. Variable or index supply customers will absorb both the market price risk and the delivery cost increase simultaneously.

BERDO Deadline: 32 Days for Boston Accounts

Boston commercial building owners with 2025 emissions that exceeded BERDO limits face a May 15, 2026 compliance deadline — 32 days from today. Compliance options include efficiency upgrades, renewable energy supply (RECs, PPAs, solar), or an Alternative Compliance Payment of $234 per metric ton of CO².

Gridwealth's 100% MA Class I REC supply product is BERDO-eligible and available now. For brokers with Boston commercial accounts that are still on standard fixed or variable supply, this is a direct product opportunity. At current REC prices (~$38–42/REC), the renewable supply option is often cost-effective compared to the ACP penalty.

At 32 days, the window to close a BERDO-driven supply deal is now, not next month.

The Forward Curve: Two Plays That Both Beat Waiting

Based on current ICE and CME forward curve indications, the Mass Hub forward price structure looks like this:

Play #1 — Lock through November. Capture the cheapest months of the year (spring shoulder) and avoid summer repricing. Best for customers expiring April–July 2026 who want the current trough with flexibility on 2027 decisions.

Play #2 — Go long at 24 months. The forward curve is in backwardation: Cal 2028 is approximately $14–18/MWh cheaper than Cal 2027. A 24-month term blends the current trough with cheaper out-months, producing a blended rate that beats both the 90-day average and projected 2027 spot conditions. Best for budget-driven commercial customers, multi-site accounts, and municipalities in annual budget planning season.

Either play beats waiting. The window closes when summer AC load builds in May. At that point, the same customers will be looking at a $5–10/MWh higher market than today's.

The Regulatory Backdrop: Capacity Market Redesign Accepted

One notable market structure development this period: FERC accepted ISO-NE's Phase 1 Capacity Auction Reforms (CAR) on March 31, 2026. The existing 3-year forward Forward Capacity Market will be replaced by a prompt Annual Capacity Auction held approximately one month before each capacity commitment period. The first auction under the new framework is planned for 2028.

For commercial buyers, this matters primarily because it increases short-term capacity price uncertainty. Multi-year fixed supply contracts — priced before the new auction framework takes effect — lock in capacity costs under current market structure. Customers who wait may face pricing under a more volatile, prompt-market structure when they eventually do lock.

What To Do This Week

If you are a C&I energy buyer in Massachusetts or Rhode Island, or a broker serving that market, the action items for this week are clear:

• Pull a fixed supply quote for any customer with a contract expiring in the next 60–90 days. Today's pricing is at a 3-year low relative to forward expectations.
• For RI customers specifically: pair the supply quote with the September rate hike narrative. The urgency is real and quantifiable.
• For Boston commercial accounts under BERDO: confirm whether they need REC-backed supply and get a quote on Gridwealth's 100% MA Class I REC product. May 15 is 32 days out.
• Use the Gridwealth DASI Bill Shock Estimator to show variable supply customers their winter 2027 exposure. The April lull makes the contrast particularly dramatic.
• Show the forward curve table. The backwardation story — where 24-month terms produce better blended rates than 12-month terms — is one of the stronger procurement arguments available right now.